2024 NFL record projections: Chiefs rule regular season, but is three-peat ahead?

Like an already convulsive presidential election cycle, the NFL is about to kick into high gear with teams set to report to training camps en masse this week. And like the election, just when you think you’ve fully grasped what’s going on with America’s most popular sports league … well, think again. And then again. Upsets, injuries, firings, pressure, chemistry and other factors can all instantly change the complexion of the pro football landscape – just ask Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, the Eagles, Bill Belichick or even eventual champion Chiefs, each veering into unexpected outcomes during a wild 2023 campaign.

Onward.

With preseason just around the corner, and all 32 rosters about as optimized as they’re going to be, it’s time to delve into our annual exercise of projecting each club's record – and that means caucusing our way through the league to find the best teams before winnowing the field to 14 postseason qualifiers and, ultimately, attempting to determine who’s atop the Super Bowl 59 ticket seven months in advance. And while it doesn’t drive the outlook, be mindful of history – and that means some team is probably going from worst to first place (or vice versa), the playoff field will turn over by at least four teams (as it has in each of the previous 34 seasons) … and, sorry K.C., there probably won’t be a three-peat champion, none ever materializing in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).

(A note on methodology: Using the most current information amid a few iterations of this exercise, I predict winners and losers for all 272 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes allow me to apply tiebreakers, when needed, to determine and seed the 14-team playoff field before arriving at a champion. Warning, past performance is no guarantee of future returns.)

Now, without further ado, the results of our way-too-early exit polling:

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NFC EAST

(3) Philadelphia Eagles (10-7): They have their third set of coordinators (OC Kellen Moore, DC Vic Fangio) since the start of the 2022 campaign, when they advanced to Super Bowl 57; said goodbye to retired former mainstays Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox; and welcomed free agent RB Saquon Barkley and DE Bryce Huff (and welcomed back DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson) before adding what appears like another strong draft class. Quite a bit of turnover. But what rarely changes about this franchise is its ability to win – Philly missing the playoffs just once since the start of the 2017 season. No team has successfully defended this division’s crown in 20 years, another reason to expect the Eagles to reclaim the top spot – though they’ll have to survive a September slate that includes two road games and one home date … in South America.

Dallas Cowboys (8-9): Owner Jerry Jones will doubtless publicly disagree with this assessment at his annual news conference assessing the state of the franchise … and perhaps quadruple down on his avowed “all in” mantra for 2024. But his coach (Mike McCarthy), quarterback (Dak Prescott) and, arguably, best player (CeeDee Lamb) are currently scheduled to enter a lame-duck campaign on the heels of an offseason when the Cowboys were depleted by free agency, apparently unwilling to further cripple their cap in the near term. To survive, they’ll likely need new (and former) coordinator Mike Zimmer to sustain what’s been an opportunistic defense and McCarthy to prove this offense is more than an aerial show while enduring a brutal four-game stretch following a Week 7 bye that includes three opponents that were 2023 playoff teams. Feels like too much to ask, especially given what could be lingering off-field distractions.

Washington Commanders (7-10): New front office, new coach (Dan Quinn), new locker room leaders, including first-round QB Jayden Daniels, and just a generally growing good-feels vibe as this organization continues moving beyond its former regime. Though the bottom fell out on the field last year, it seems like Washington should get back to the seven- or eight-win plateau where it’s hovered for the better part of a decade. But it feels like the Commanders are actually charting a positive course this time rather than treading water – and don’t be surprised if they struggle early and finish strong, which would seem to align with their schedule and the familiar arc of many rookie passers.

New York Giants (4-13): If you’ve been watching “Hard Knocks,” you’ve gleaned insight into GM Joe Schoen’s offseason thinking – namely to diversify his cap allotment beyond now-departed Barkley while trying to build a roster that will allow the team to provide one more fair assessment of convalescing QB Daniel Jones (ACL) … and, yes, the Barkley divorce certainly doesn’t seem like a decision that will serve Jones well. Maybe the arrival of hyped first-round WR Malik Nabers and a fortified O-line will provide the desired offset. But unless first-year coordinator Shane Bowen’s defense dials in quickly and spectacularly, it’s difficult to find many wins here – particularly before December – in what’s actually the NFC East’s most difficult schedule (based on opponents’ 2023 winning percentages).

NFC NORTH

(2) Green Bay Packers (13-4): What a dazzling statement QB Jordan Love made in his first year as the post-Rodgers starter, driving what was the league’s youngest roster in 2023 to the verge of an appearance in the NFC championship game. This talent-teeming nucleus should continue to ascend, especially if it enjoys the expected boosts from the new set of rookies and free agent additions like RB Josh Jacobs and S Xavier McKinney. But the real delta here could occur courtesy of new DC Jeff Hafley, who’s shifting the scheme and charged with shifting the fortunes of a bunch that’s underachieved despite being armed with seven first-round picks. Fresh rings in Titletown? Could be.

(5) Detroit Lions (11-6): Like the Pack, their Lombardi bid last season came up just short in a playoff loss at San Francisco. However outside expectations will now match what HC Dan Campbell has demanded internally from his team the past few years. The rest of a division the Lions just won for the first time is also fast improving. A pathway to the first Super Bowl berth in franchise history likely requires a strong start as the Lions play just two home games over an eight-week period spanning October and November. But it could happen if a young core continues to blossom – WR Jameson Williams needs to step up – and reaps results from an upgraded pass defense.

(7) Chicago Bears (9-8): The narrative that no No. 1 overall pick has entered a more favorable situation in the common draft era (since 1967) than QB Caleb Williams? We’re buying it. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner is surrounded by weapons on offense and supported by a defense that found its footing following last year’s midseason trade for DE Montez Sweat. Williams obviously had no role for a club that won four of its final six games in 2023, but he’s got a great chance to sustain that momentum given Chicago plays the league’s easiest schedule (aside from NFC South teams) – and, if you count San Francisco’s Brock Purdy in 2022, could well make it four seasons in a row that a rookie quarterback has led a team to postseason.

Minnesota Vikings (5-12): Starting with All-Pro WR1 Justin Jefferson, there’s quite obviously ample talent on this roster. There’s also bound to ample whiplash as the organization transitions from QB Kirk Cousins, likely to journeyman Sam Darnold and then again to first-rounder J.J. McCarthy – quite possibly at some point later this year. Throw in the fact that five of the Vikes’ first seven opponents were playoff teams last season, a list that doesn’t include their London date with the Jets? All signs point toward a mulligan, even if HC Kevin O’Connell likely manages to field a competitive squad.

NFC SOUTH

(4) Atlanta Falcons (9-8): Their superflex approach to roster building will doubtless draw further scrutiny during camp and preseason given the likelihood first-round QB Michael Penix Jr. will flash mobility and arm strength Cousins could only dream of. But the Falcons didn’t sign the veteran to a four-year, $180 million deal without the expectation he’d significantly upgrade a position that began to betray the team when Matt Ryan went into decline in 2021, his final year in the ATL. The Falcons have plenty of talent, a new coach (Raheem Morris) who was hired over Belichick and has been consistently praised by his players elsewhere and the benefit of the league’s weakest schedule. Between Week 3 and 9, the team will play five home games and face all of its divisional foes – a stretch that could launch Atlanta to its first NFC South crown since 2016.

New Orleans Saints (8-9): They’re 25-26 and without a playoff appearance since QB Drew Brees’ retirement – and little reason to expect much else now. Despite quite a bit of churn behind center the past few years and, now, philosophically after the departure of longtime OC Pete Carmichael Jr., the roster doesn’t look markedly different overall – even with last week’s news that RT Ryan Ramczyk is unsurprisingly lost for the season to chronic knee issues. Unless new OC Klint Kubiak can ignite this attack – and that will mean significantly more from QB Derek Carr and contractually disgruntled RB Alvin Kamara – the Saints don’t have much of a prayer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): Let’s first salute an organization that hasn’t missed postseason since 2019 and hasn’t finished outside first place in the division since 2020. Let’s also be realistic about a squad that’s 18-19 over the past two seasons, playoffs included, and has benefited from its station in the NFC South. The Bucs literally allocated hundred of millions into continuity this spring, specifically a three-year, $100 million reinvestment in QB Baker Mayfield. But staying on top, even amid this quartet, won’t be easy. Between Week 2 and 10, Tampa Bay will have three divisional games and four more against all of the teams that reached last season’s conference championship round.

Carolina Panthers (4-13): With new HC and quarterback whisperer Dave Canales and his positive vibes in the building, every reason to expect major progress from QB Bryce Young – and that could realistically mean doubling Carolina’s 2023 victory total, as modest a goal as that is.

NFC WEST

(1) San Francisco 49ers (13-4): Logical as it is to keep WR Brandon Aiyuk now (and well into the future), this is probably the Niners’ last crack at Super Bowl glory with this entire foundation given the cap-crushing windfall that’s invariably coming to Purdy a year from now. But presently, San Francisco certainly has the horses – many of them thoroughbreds – to make a very deep playoff run … and maybe win the photo finish this time after Super Bowl 58's near miss. Primo opportunity for a fast start with five of their first six contests against 2023 non-playoff teams.

(6) Los Angeles Rams (10-7): For the second straight year, they enter the season with major questions on defense – this time due to the retirement of Aaron Donald and the departure of Morris, who’d been the coordinator since 2021. But the Rams invested heavily on that side of the ball in the draft while reallocating copious cap resources into the offensive line. And if WR Cooper Kupp can play his first full season since a scintillating 2021 showing, LA could have the best receiver tandem in the league if Puka Nacua simply approaches his record-setting rookie effort. October could be a critical stretch given the Rams will be home the entire month.

Arizona Cardinals (7-10): Despite a new coaching staff, limited snaps for QB Kyler Murray and widespread roster reboot, the Cards were a tough out nearly every week last season. This year, Murray should be physically recovered from his 2022 ACL tear and assisted by a draft haul that brought seven players among the top 90 overall selections – with the primary focus on first-round WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Arizona will be tested early, facing 2023 postseason squads in five of the first six weeks. But this season could be a springboard to a breakout 2025 for this club.

Seattle Seahawks (5-12): New coaches, new playbooks, new culture … and hardly any guarantee that this roster currently fits the philosophies of Mike Macdonald, 37, now the youngest HC in the league. Hard to believe a group that’s been ineffective defensively while struggling to run the ball in recent years will suddenly do an about-face in 2024 – and having just three home games in the season’s second half certainly won’t help.

OFFSEASON NFL GRADES: Where each team rates

AFC EAST

(2) New York Jets (12-5): Let’s try this again. The roster – on paper – looks as good as any in the league, perhaps even the best Rodgers has ever been on. The defense, a top-five unit the past two seasons despite lacking offensive support, might be the NFL’s best … on paper. Buffalo, division champs since 2020, appears diminished by salary cap adjustments. Most important, Rodgers says he’s healthy after a torn Achilles ended his much-hyped 2023 debut season with the NYJ after four snaps. Given the supporting cast around him, including a bolstered line and arrivals of WRs Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley, Rodgers shouldn’t need to vie for a record-tying fifth league MVP award for this team to capture its first title in 56 years. And wouldn’t it be something if that happened against his ex-employer in Wisconsin? To get there, the Jets must surmount a schedule that includes six prime-time dates and a European detour in the first 11 weeks.

(5) Buffalo Bills (10-7): They won seven of their final nine games last season, both losses by three points (including a playoff heartbreaker at home against the Chiefs), after installing Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator. Though WR Stefon Diggs wasn’t a major component of that hot finish, Buffalo will have to carry on without him, WR2 Gabe Davis and quite a few former key players the team just couldn’t afford to keep. And the Bills better adapt to their new reality by midseason because, between Weeks 9 and 15, they’ll face just one team that didn’t reach postseason in 2023 – and that apparent reprieve is a Week 11 trip to Indy. Maintaining their divisional eminence might be too much to ask of QB Josh Allen and Co. in the midst of this adjustment period.

Miami Dolphins (8-9): If you believe football teams should be built inside out and/or that games are won in the trenches … then this might not be the crew for you given the interior stalwarts (DT Christian Wilkins, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams) who were not re-signed. And if you don’t believe in a team that’s faded badly in both of HC Mike McDaniel’s seasons, albeit each concluding in the playoffs, then you won’t be encouraged by the fact that the Fins’ last six games come against four 2023 playoff teams (three on the road) and the Jets (twice).

New England Patriots (3-14): For a team that plays in the shadow of a lighthouse, 2024 has been a sea change – most notably from the organizational chart to the quarterback depth chart. Rookie HC Jerod Mayo and rookie QB Drake Maye may both be great … eventually. Yet given how little the roster has evolved otherwise – one that won four games in legendary Belichick’s final season in Foxborough – expectations have to be realistic. And it might be something of a wait before Mayo breaks into the win column … though the Pats could very well “win” the No. 1 pick of the 2025 draft.

AFC NORTH

(4) Cincinnati Bengals (11-6): Your most likely worst-to-first candidate – hardly a hot take given Cincy won the division in 2021 and ’22. The numbers say the Bengals have, by far, the easiest schedule in the division, the other teams saddled with the three hardest dockets in the league. But they’ve also got hurdles: the departures of OC Brian Callahan, RB Joe Mixon, WR3 Tyler Boyd and DT D.J. Reader; unhappy campers in WR2 Tee Higgins and DE Trey Hendrickson; and Burrow, the keystone to the operation, on the road back from last year’s season-ending injury to his passing wrist. But RB Zack Moss, S Geno Stone and third-round WR Jermaine Burton could be among this season’s most underappreciated newcomers. And the margin for error at the outset seems pretty generous given the Patriots, Commanders and Panthers – owners of the league’s three worst records in 2023 – show up on Cincinnati’s September schedule.

(7) Cleveland Browns (10-7): The won 11 games and nearly the division in 2023 despite a slew of major injuries, most notably QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and RB Nick Chubb (ACL) missing most of the season with ailments to, respectively, the most concerning parts of their bodies from a professional standpoint. It’s imperative for Watson to finally find his footing in this offense, and new WR2 Jerry Jeudy and last season’s top-ranked defense are good things to lean on. However with the Bengals the only 2023 non-playoff team among Cleveland’s final five opponents, the Browns can’t afford a slow start – especially since they’re stuck with the NFL’s toughest schedule (their opponents with a .547 winning percentage in 2023).

Baltimore Ravens (10-7): Optimism is inevitably building given the addition of RB Derrick Henry to a team that finished a win shy of the Super Bowl after earning a No. 1 playoff seed last season. But how well will an established 30-year-old back accustomed to running starts from a deep backfield alignment actually mesh with QB Lamar Jackson, the two-time league MVP so often at his best when not under center? And despite Henry’s arrival, the Ravens must also overcome a litany of losses from the roster, particularly on defense and the offensive line, as well as Macdonald’s departure from the DC post. This isn’t to suggest Baltimore, which faces four 2023 division winners in the first seven weeks, isn’t playoff caliber – the Ravens only miss the postseason field in this projection after very narrowly losing the strength-of-victory tiebreaker to Cleveland.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Heading into his 18th season at the helm, we know HC Mike Tomlin won’t be associated with a losing ledger. But while these Steelers appear more formidable following the acquisitions of QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, plus what might be this year’s most enviable class of rookies, things could certainly get messy as Arthur Smith installs a new offense for an organization attempting to get back to its hard-nosed roots – all while also trying to determine whether one of its new quarterbacks, with disparate skill sets and experience, is the answer for 2025 and beyond even though neither is signed for next season. And coming out of their Week 9 bye, the Steelers hit the road five times in a seven-week span. Pittsburgh hasn't finished in last place since divisional realignment in 2002, but there’s a first time for everything – last year being the first in the Super Bowl era when an entire divisional membership (AFC North) finished above .500. Déjà vu?

AFC SOUTH

(3) Indianapolis Colts (11-6): They got a combined 14 games out of All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor and rookie QB Anthony Richardson in 2023 – yet nearly made the playoffs anyway. Just wait until coach and strategist extraordinaire Shane Steichen is playing with a full deck – Richardson, a self-described mix of Jackson and Cam Newton flashing as advertised – one that now includes rookie WR Adonai Mitchell. The defense has also been augmented by a rookie, first-round DE Laiatu Latu, and should field one of the league’s best pass rushes. And with no 2023 playoff teams on the schedule after Week 12, the Colts are set up to perhaps be postseason dark horses in 2024.

(6) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7): They spent big bucks in free agency and might’ve gotten a gem in first-round WR Brian Thomas Jr. But if newly minted QB Trevor Lawrence and WR Christian Kirk are fully healthy, and key youngsters (Lawrence, LB Devin Lloyd, OLB Travon Walker and OT Anton Harrison among them) continue to develop, a club coming off dissimilar 9-8 campaigns – ending with a surge in 2022 and flameout in 2023 – could be back in the playoff mix.

Houston Texans (9-8): Coming off a stunning turnaround in 2023, led by rookie HC DeMeco Ryans and QB C.J. Stroud, they’ll justifiably be a chic Super Bowl pick in some quarters. And Stroud could take another step, backed by an offense he deemed a “five-headed monster” last week given the additions of Diggs and Mixon to a group that already included WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell and TE Dalton Schultz (not to mention RB Dameon Pierce, who nearly rushed for 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2022). Yet sophomore slumps happen, too. Unfamiliar expectations can become overwhelming. And a team that finished one game ahead of the injury-riddled Colts and Jags in 2023 must now play a first-place schedule, which also projects as the AFC South’s hardest in 2024 – one that includes three consecutive division winners from last season coming out of a Week 14 bye. Progression? Regression? Stay tuned, but the latter must be considered in equal measure with the former.

Tennessee Titans (6-11): For a team brining in a first-time head coach (Callahan) while purging cornerstones Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans' freewheeling offseason spending seemed a bit unusual. And while it makes sense to juice the offensive menu with more targets (WRs Calvin Ridley and Boyd, RB Tony Pollard) for second-year QB Will Levis and the passing game Callahan is known for, it remains to be seen if this approach is sustainable over the long term. Regardless, while a playoff return might be a stretch in 2024, the Titans have too much talent to be anyone’s patsy.

AFC WEST

(1) Kansas City Chiefs (13-4): With speed receivers Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy now in the fold, widespread expectations that – despite an open question at left tackle – an offense that bogged down at times in 2023 could return to its combustible ways. The defense has never been better since HC Andy Reid arrived in 2013. And given the generally moderate (at best) forecast for the remainder of a division the Chiefs have ruled since 2016, it seems highly likely they’ll improve on last season’s 11-6 record – the worst since Patrick Mahomes became QB1 in 2018. Beyond that, this very capable team has a tall task if it’s to break ground as the first to achieve a Super Bowl three-peat – none of the previous eight teams that have gone back to back since 1966 have gotten back to Super Sunday the following year, and three missed the playoffs entirely.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): The last time new HC Jim Harbaugh took over an NFL team, the 2011 49ers, it made a seven-win improvement and nearly qualified for Super Bowl 46 before falling in overtime of that season’s NFC title game. That might be too much to ask of these Bolts, particularly after they were forced into some offseason cost purging that hit the receiving corps especially hard. Still, plenty of talent remains, and the Chargers are seemingly in better shape at quarterback than those Niners with Justin Herbert, who’s set to operate behind an O-line recharged by rookie RT Joe Alt. What seems to be a favorable season-ending schedule could vault this team into what might be a watershed 2025 campaign.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-11): They’ve got some nice players in premium spots – DE Maxx Crosby, LT Kolton Miller, first-round TE Brock Bowers, Wilkins and WR Davante Adams … as long as he’s around – and a new coach in Antonio Pierce who galvanized this group during his nine-game interim stint last season. But questions abound otherwise, notably regarding Adams’ future and at quarterback, where Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell seem to be vying for a bridge role to an unknown successor.

Denver Broncos (4-13): Rookie QB Bo Nix may execute HC Sean Payton’s offense more efficiently than did Wilson, his two-year tenure in the Rockies coming to an abrupt and expensive end in March. But Nix doesn’t appear to have nearly the help that fellow rookies Caleb Williams and even Daniels have in what has all the makings of a reset in Denver – one that may not bear serious fruit for several years.

NFC playoffs

Wild card: (2) Packers def. (7) Bears; (6) Rams def. (3) Eagles; (5) Lions def. (4) Falcons

Divisional: (1) 49ers def. (6) Rams; (2) Packers def. (5) Lions

Championship game: (2) Packers def. (1) 49ers

AFC playoffs

Wild card: (2) Jets def. (7) Browns; (6) Jaguars def. (3) Colts; (4) Bengals def. (5) Bills

Divisional: (1) Chiefs def. (6) Jaguars; (2) Jets def. (4) Bengals

Championship game: (2) Jets def. (1) Chiefs

Super Bowl 59 (New Orleans)

Jets def. Packers

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.